Africa: Conflict Coltan, AI Demand and the Risk of Runaway Harm

Conflict coltan from the DRC is already finding its way into our electronic devices, and rising AI and data centre demand could accelerate harms and add pressure to creaking regulation

Global Witness has worked for many years to expose how conflict minerals from the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continue to fuel its war and enter global electronics supply chains, despite the due diligence systems that industry has helped to design, finance and run.

Our latest investigation focuses on coltan from the Rubaya mines in North Kivu, which produce around 15% of the world's coltan and have been occupied by the Rwanda-backed armed group M23 since April 2024, with deadly consequences.

The investigation shows that the unprecedented amount of conflict coltan smuggled from Rubaya, DRC, into Rwanda is bought by at least five of Rwanda's seven biggest coltan exporters. From there it is sold through intermediaries to smelters, and ultimately is likely to enter the supply chains of major consumer technology, automotive and telecoms brands.

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Coltan ore is processed into tantalum, a metal used in electronics, defence and aviation, including in the capacitors that help to regulate power in complex devices and high-performance computing systems, like the infrastructure behind artificial intelligence.

AI servers and data centres require high power density - meaning that power can be stored and mobilised in small units - and a reliable power supply. Industry reporting points to AI servers and other data centre hardware as a structural driver of rising demand for tantalum capacitors, which provide this needed power density.

If the AI boom dramatically increases demand for tantalum and its derivative coltan while controls remain weak, it could cause an already deadly situation to lock in further.

AI and data centres' potential to massively expand harm

The danger is not simply that more tantalum will be needed. It is that higher prices and tighter supply can make holding control over the mines even more lucrative.

M23's control of Rubaya has already shown how armed occupation of mineral-producing areas can generate revenue for a brutal rebel group, distort trade and contaminate global supply chains.

If data centre, AI, defence and electric vehicle sectors compete for the same constrained supply, the financial incentive to seize, tax, smuggle and launder coltan could rise sharply.

This risks fuelling further violence, incentivising more military takeovers of mining areas, and embedding conflict minerals even deeper into the digital economy in the products and infrastructure it is built on.

The US as a key player

The US has a central role because many of the companies driving AI, cloud computing and advanced electronics are US-based or US-listed.

Section 1502 of the Dodd-Frank Act was designed to force US-listed companies using tin, tantalum, tungsten and gold to investigate and disclose whether their minerals may have originated in DRC or adjoining countries and whether they may have financed armed groups.

In practice the rule has not been strong enough to create real accountability throughout the downstream supply chain.

The US is also pursuing minerals-for-security dealmaking with the DRC at a time when eastern Congo remains affected by M23's advance and Rwanda's backing of the armed group.

The initial framework suggests that mineral access, investment and security cooperation have been bundled together, with the DRC seeking support against M23 and the US seeking more secure access to critical minerals.

Some reports also indicate that Rubaya itself, despite being under M23 control, has been discussed as a strategic tantalum asset for future US-linked investment.

This is against a backdrop of the US being one of the more aggressive geographies when it comes to sanctioning individuals associated with the M23 and violence in eastern DRC.

Any agreement between the US and DRC should therefore be judged by whether it helps to restore Congolese control over its territory, cuts off M23's mineral revenues, strengthens governance and transparency, and ensures that communities benefit from mineral wealth - not by whether it gives foreign companies privileged access to supply.

AI raises pressure on already weak regulation

Our work demonstrates systemic failure across the global responsible sourcing architecture. Traceability and assurance schemes, including ITSCI, Better Mining and Responsible Minerals Initiative audits, have failed to prevent conflict-linked coltan from being laundered into supply chains.

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This is more than a compliance issue. If these same systems are relied upon to reassure downstream buyers during a surge in demand, they risk giving false comfort to companies, investors and governments while conflict-linked material continues to move through supply chains.

In this already unstable landscape, deals that trade minerals for security can become extractive, opaque and short term, especially when a country under attack is negotiating from a position of immediate need.

If AI and data centre growth is allowed to drive a scramble for tantalum without reducing demand, improving recycling, enforcing due diligence and holding downstream companies accountable, the result could be runaway harm: more money for armed groups, more incentives to seize mines, more laundering through weak systems and more technology built on violence in eastern DRC.

Authors

• Emily Iona Stewart Head of Policy and Advocacy
• Ashley Thomson Senior US Policy Advisor, Forests

Emily Iona Stewart, Head of Policy and Advocacy

Ashley Thomson, Senior US Policy Advisor, Forests