Africa: El Niño and Disease Threaten West Africa's Cocoa Harvest

Cocoa prices are rising as disease, weak pod development and the return of El Niño threaten the next harvest in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, which together account for more than half of global supply. New York cocoa reached an 11-month high as traders focused on risks to the 2026/27 crop.

Ghana's Cocoa Board estimates production at 650,000 metric tons for 2026/27, down 13% from 750,000 tons this season. Farmers are dealing with black pod disease, swollen shoot disease and aging trees. Heavy rain and limited sunshine have also reduced pod development and made it harder to control fungal infections.

The outlook in Côte d'Ivoire is also weaker. Early crop surveys point to production of about 1.8 million tons in the season starting in September, down 18% from about 2.2 million tons in 2025/26. Poor pod formation and weather have raised concerns about the main crop, while some exporters expect arrivals to ports to start later than usual.

El Niño adds another risk. The weather pattern can bring warmer and drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture and cocoa yields. StoneX cut its forecast for the 2026/27 global cocoa surplus to 25,000 tons from 149,000 tons, while Transgraph Consulting expects the surplus to shrink to 80,000 tons from 415,000 tons.

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Current supply, however, remains higher than a year ago. Côte d'Ivoire shipped 2.11 million tons to ports through early August, up 20%, while Ghana harvested 750,000 tons in 2025/26, up 25.6%. ICE inventories have also reached a 2-year high, leaving the market caught between available supplies today and concerns about the next crop.

Key Takeaways

The cocoa market is shifting from concern about current shortages to concern about what West Africa will produce next. Supply has recovered this season: Ghana harvested 750,000 tons, Côte d'Ivoire's port arrivals increased and exchange inventories reached a 2-year high. That has helped rebuild stocks after several years of shortages. The risk is that the recovery may not last. Ghana now expects its next crop to fall 13%, while early estimates point to an 18% decline in Côte d'Ivoire. Disease is part of the problem, but weather could determine how much production falls. El Niño can reduce rainfall and soil moisture at the stage when cocoa trees need them for pod development. At the same time, demand is giving mixed signals. European cocoa processing fell 4.6% in the second quarter, while North American grindings rose 7.7% and Asian processing increased 25%. That means weaker production would not automatically create another shortage if demand also slows. The fall in StoneX's projected surplus from 149,000 tons to 25,000 tons shows how small the buffer may become. For prices, the next few months will depend on crop arrivals, disease levels and whether El Niño reduces West African output as forecast.

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